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Source: Founder medium term futures

Author: Li Yansen

Summary:

Overall, the performance of manufacturing PMI recovery in November was slightly higher than expected. However, from the perspective of sub items, the recovery of demand is not as good as supply, and the recovery of demand for finished products is not as good as raw materials. The rise of raw material prices slowed down month on month, product prices even fell month on month, and the power of enterprises to further increase inventory is not strong. In addition, the construction industry indicators eased the capital shortage of key real estate enterprises. After the commencement and construction were resumed, the capital construction investment was superimposed, and a certain repair occurred. We believe that the recovery of supply may be related to the reduction of power supply gap, and the limited recovery of demand indicates that the economy is still under pressure. The disturbance from passive replenishment to active destocking is a normal phenomenon. The inventory cycle is still downward, and the risk of active destocking and economic weakness is still. The service industry is obviously affected by the epidemic, and pay attention to the repair degree after the epidemic improved in December. In the long term, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the current weakness, and the economy is still in the upward cycle. Pay attention to the effect of infrastructure development on demand support in the later stage, and the stimulus of monetary policy to accelerate macro liquidity investment to stabilize credit.

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L data show that in November, China's official manufacturing PMI reported 50.1, stronger than the expected 49.6, rebounding from the previous value of 49.2; PMI of non manufacturing industry continued to decline slightly to 52.3 from the previous value of 52.4, but slightly stronger than the expected 51.4; The comprehensive PMI reported 52.2, which rebounded from the previous value of 50.8. The total manufacturing PMI index returned above the boom and bust line.

L among the influencing factors of the total manufacturing PMI index, the sub items of production, new orders, raw material inventory and employment rebounded, driving the index up by 0.9, 0.18, 0.07 and 0.02 respectively, but the sub item of supplier distribution dragged down the index by 0.23.

L in terms of main sub items, production and new orders increased by 3.6 and 0.6 respectively, and the ten-year quantile level rose to 24% and 7%, and the supply recovery was relatively more obvious. New export orders also increased slightly by 1.9, and the situation that foreign demand is stronger than domestic demand and stronger than total demand remains unchanged. In terms of inventory, the finished product inventory and raw material inventory index increased by 1.6 and 0.7 respectively, and the sign of product inventory is more obvious than that of raw materials. According to our calculation, the net demand for finished products continued to decline to 1.5, but the net demand for raw materials rebounded slightly to 2.5. Overall, demand recovery is not as good as supply, and demand recovery for finished products is not as good as raw materials. Supply recovery may be related to the decline of power supply gap. The disturbance from passive inventory adding to active inventory removing is a normal phenomenon. The short-term prosperity recovers and the inventory cycle is still downward. In addition, the increase in raw material prices slowed down significantly month on month, and product prices even fell month on month, indicating that enterprises do not have a strong incentive to further increase inventory. The economic pressure is expected to remain unchanged.

L other sub items of manufacturing PMI. The employment sub item rebounded slightly by 0.1, the absolute value is still lower than 50, and the employment pressure has not been significantly relieved. Supplier distribution increased by 1.5, easing the tension in supply chain and logistics. Both orders in hand and business expectations rebounded slightly, but the former still had negative growth month on month. Imports and purchases picked up, corresponding to the acceleration of production. In terms of price level, the price of raw materials and ex factory price decreased by 19.2 and 12.2 respectively, and the ex factory price decreased to 48.9, lower than the 50 boom and bust line. When the downstream demand did not improve, the upstream supply resumed to hit the price. Meanwhile, it is expected that the month on month growth rate of PPI in November will drop to near 0.

L in terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises dropped slightly to 50.2, and the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises increased to 51.2 and 48.5 respectively. Medium-sized enterprises performed best, but small enterprises were still below the 50 boom and bust line.

L in terms of non manufacturing PMI, the business activity index decreased slightly by 0.1 to 52.3, and the 10-year quantile level fell to a low of 3%. Most of the main sub items fell, especially the prices of inputs and sales prices fell significantly with the prices of bulk commodities. New orders decreased slightly and new export orders remained unchanged. The number of employees fell by 0.2, and was lower than the 50 boom and bust line as in the manufacturing industry. Orders on hand decreased by 0.4. By industry, the index of construction industry and service industry increased by 2.2 and decreased by 0.5 respectively. Service industry is the main factor dragging down non manufacturing industry. However, the construction industry is expected to decline by 2.0, which is relatively more pessimistic. The construction industry indicators eased the shortage of funds in key real estate enterprises, and began to resume construction. There was a certain recovery after construction, and there were signs of short-term real estate repair. At the same time, the acceleration of infrastructure investment also has some support. The service industry was affected by the epidemic and declined significantly. If the epidemic improved as scheduled in December, the PMI of the service industry will be repaired.